Otis Chandler's Reviews > Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

Absolutely loved this book and all the examples it gives of how we think we are making rational decisions, when in fact we aren't. The book concludes by saying many of these irrational decisions we make are entirely predictable (thus the title of the book), and thus we should as a society do better to factor them in. I would have loved more suggestions of how this could be done, but that was beyond the scope of the book.

This book seems to be a must for anyone studying or dealing with pricing. Which is all of us given we all buy things. For instance, the advice that "given three choices, most people will take the middle choice" is simultaneously obvious and also very useful.

"humans rarely choose things in absolute terms. We don’t have an internal value meter that tells us how much things are worth. Rather, we focus on the relative advantage of one thing over another, and estimate value accordingly."

I loved the chapter on social norms vs market norms. Also stuff that seems obvious, but I hadn't ever put it into that mental model, and seeing it that way is very interesting. Good reminder that money isn't the best motivator, but if you go with social norms, you have to keep it entirely that way (eg Burning Man barter economy).

"we live simultaneously in two different worlds—one where social norms prevail, and the other where market norms make the rules." ... "when a social norm collides with a market norm, the social norm goes away for a long time. In other words, social relationships are not easy to reestablish."

Another gem was the study that showed that how when we are in an emotionally charged state, we make consistently worse decisions. It would be great if my smart devices (Garmon, Oura, Fitbit, Apple Watch, etc) could detect this and give me a warning somehow.

"every one of us, regardless of how “good” we are, underpredicts the effect of passion on our behavior. In every case, the participants in our experiment got it wrong. Even the most brilliant and rational person, in the heat of passion, seems to be absolutely and completely divorced from the person he thought he was."

Another interesting study compared the same coffee served in a mediocre setting with that served in a upscale setting, and found the same coffee tasted significantly better in the upscale setting. Good to remember - the entire experience matters, design matters, the little details matter.

I loved the study on food ordering, which showed "When people order food and drinks, they seem to have two goals: to order what they will enjoy most and to portray themselves in a positive light in the eyes of their friends." Thus if people order out loud, they are more likely to order different things from those before them, and if they order blindly, more likely to order the same things. This is why blind voting on hiring and anything else where groupthink is so key is important. Also, I can't wait for restaurants to have barcode ordering and checkout :)